Global Cereal Market Outlook 2025/26: Record-High Stocks and Robust Supply
The outlook for cereal grains trading has never been more promising. With global cereal production projected to hit an all-time high in 2025/26, the wheat, corn, and rice markets are set to offer unparalleled opportunities for suppliers, traders, and end-users. If you’re interested in bulk grain trading or looking for the most reliable grain suppliers in the USA and globally, now is the time to stay informed and ready to act.
Record Global Cereal Production: According to top forecasts, worldwide cereal production is expected to reach 2.925 billion tonnes in 2025/26—an increase of 2.3% from last year. Growth in regions such as India, Brazil, China, and the United States is driving this surge, especially for: - Wheat - Corn (maize) - Rice
Cereal Stocks-to-Use Ratio: A Key Indicator - High production is fueling a rise in global cereal stock reserves. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio—a crucial measure of supply security—is forecast to increase from 29.8% in 2024/25 to 30.3% in 2025/26, suggesting one of the most comfortable supply positions in recent years.
Cereal Stock Highlights: - Total world cereal stocks: Expected at 889.1 million tonnes (+2.2% YoY). - Wheat stocks: Forecast at 321 million tonnes (+0.9% YoY). - Corn and other coarse grain stocks: To reach 353.6 million tonnes (+3.6% YoY). - Rice stocks: Record 214.4 million tonnes, led by reserves in India and stronger global yields.
Cereal Utilization and Trade: Global cereal utilization is projected to approach 2.9 billion tonnes, as demand for both food and feed grains continues to rise. International cereal trade volumes should rebound by 1.2% to 486.9 million tonnes, driven mainly by wheat and rice exports.
US Cereal Supply and Stocks Forecast
For US agriculture, wheat, corn, and rice production remain critical to bulk grain sales and agri-exports: - Wheat production (2025/26): Projected at 1,929 million bushels with increased exports but gradually decreasing ending stocks. - Corn (maize): Slightly reduced planted area and higher export demand are tightening supplies and ending stocks. - Rice: While yields remain steady, total rice supplies are forecast to dip due to lower production volumes.
What Does This Mean for Grain Traders?
- Opportunities: Ample cereal stocks and increased production translate to reliable sourcing for bulk grain buyers and international importers. - Risks: While stocks are high, weather volatility in key regions always remains a factor. - Responsive Markets: A higher stocks-to-use ratio generally helps stabilize global grain prices—good news for bulk buyers, traders, and end-users.
Conclusion: The 2025/26 global cereal outlook points to a robust and resilient grain market, thanks to record stocks and consistent supply growth. Whether you’re in wholesale grain trading, agricultural import/export, or commodity market analysis, staying updated on cereal stocks and supply forecasts is crucial for business success. Now is the time to connect with leading grain suppliers, leverage supply chain stability, and seize new opportunities in the global cereal market.
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