The November WASDE report dropped last Friday, and while the headlines focused on production adjustments and ending stocks, the real story is what these numbers mean for your pricing decisions right now. At Agrodity, we cut through the noise to deliver actionable insights you can use today—not speculation about what might happen next quarter.
Here’s what the November WASDE tells us about corn, soybeans, and wheat markets—and how transparent, real-time trading helps you capitalize on these conditions.
Corn: Neutral Balance, Range-Bound Opportunity
The Numbers
The USDA reported 2,154 million bushels in ending stocks—slightly below analyst expectations but not enough to move the needle dramatically. Here’s what happened:
Production cut: Down 62 million bushels as yields came in lower than September estimates
Beginning stocks increased: Up 207 million bushels from the September 30 Grain Stocks report
Exports raised: Up 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion, driven by record September-October shipments
Stocks-to-use ratio: 13.3% (adequate, not tight)
What This Means for You
The corn market is stuck in neutral. Production cuts were offset by higher carryover, keeping supplies adequate. Export demand is strong, but not strong enough to tighten the balance sheet significantly.
Translation: Corn will likely trade in a $4.20–$4.75 range through Q1 2026 unless weather or trade policy shifts the equation. This is a seller’s market for disciplined operators who can execute when prices spike within that range.
The Agrodity Advantage
When corn touches the upper end of this range—say $4.60–$4.75—you need to act immediately. Traditional elevator callbacks and phone tag cost you money. Agrodity’s real-time pricing and instant execution let you lock in those peaks before they evaporate.
Example: A 50,000-bushel sale at $4.70 vs. waiting and selling at $4.50 = $10,000 difference. That’s the cost of hesitation.
Soybeans: Tightening Balance Sheet, Bullish Undertone
The Numbers
Soybeans delivered the firmest signal of the three commodities:
Ending stocks: 290 million bushels (down from 300 million in September, below analyst estimates of 306 million)
Production cut: Down 48 million bushels as yields dropped 0.5 bushels/acre
Exports reduced: Down 50 million bushels due to competition from Brazil/Argentina and narrowing price spreads from the US-China trade deal
Stocks-to-use ratio: 6.7% (historically tight)
Globally, ending stocks fell to 122.0 million metric tons, with cuts to production in the US, Ukraine, and India flowing through to lower projected stocks in Argentina and Brazil.
What This Means for You
Soybeans are tightening. A 6.7% stocks-to-use ratio is the kind of number that supports sustained price strength and creates upside risk if South American weather disappoints or Chinese demand accelerates beyond current projections.
Translation: Soybeans have a $10.50–$12.00 floor-to-ceiling range for old crop, with $11.00–$13.00 potential for new crop (November 2026) if China follows through on the 25 million metric ton commitment for 2026–2028.
The Agrodity Advantage
Tight supplies mean price volatility. When soybeans rally on weather scares or export announcements, you need to be ready to sell—or hold with confidence if you believe in further upside.
Agrodity’s nationwide market access shows you what buyers across all 50 states are paying in real-time. If California processors are paying $11.20 while your local elevator offers $10.85, you can capture that $0.35/bushel premium instantly. On 100,000 bushels, that’s $35,000 in your pocket, not theirs.
Wheat: Burdensome Supplies, Bearish Pressure
The Numbers
Wheat was the clear loser in this report:
Ending stocks: 901 million bushels (well above the 869 million estimate, up from 844 million in September)
Production increased: Up 58 million bushels on a record all-wheat yield
Stocks-to-use ratio: 43.9% (burdensome)
Season-average farm price: Lowered by $0.10 to $5.00/bushel
Globally, ending stocks rose by 7.4 million metric tons to 271.4 million—the first year-over-year increase since 2019–2020. Major exporters (Kazakhstan, Argentina, EU, US, Australia, Russia, Canada) all posted higher production forecasts.
What This Means for You
Wheat is oversupplied. A 43.9% stocks-to-use ratio means there’s no shortage, no urgency, and no catalyst for sustained rallies. Any price spikes will face a firm ceiling as global supplies flood the market.
Translation: Wheat is a $5.00–$6.00 market for the foreseeable future. Sell rallies, don’t chase them. If winter wheat touches $5.75–$6.00, that’s your signal to move inventory.
The Agrodity Advantage
In a bearish market, timing is everything. You can’t afford to wait for your local elevator to call you back when wheat spikes $0.30 on a weather headline—only to see it give back $0.25 by the time you connect.
Agrodity’s instant execution means you sell at the price you see, not the price that was available 20 minutes ago. In a range-bound, oversupplied market, those 20 minutes cost you real money.
The Bigger Picture: Why Real-Time Data Matters More Than Ever
The November WASDE confirms what we’ve been tracking for months: range-bound markets with no major supply shocks. Corn is neutral. Soybeans are tightening but not yet tight. Wheat is oversupplied.
In this environment, execution speed and market transparency are your competitive advantages. Here’s why:
1. No Margin for Timing Errors
When corn trades in a $0.50 range and soybeans in a $1.00 range, selling at the top vs. the bottom of that range is the difference between profit and break-even. You can’t afford to sell too late—or too early and miss the rally.
Agrodity solution: Real-time best bid/ask across all 50 states + instant execution = no more guessing, no more callbacks, no more regret.
2. Geographic Price Disparities Are Real
The WASDE reports national averages, but your local elevator doesn’t pay national averages. Regional supply/demand imbalances create $0.20–$0.50/bushel spreads between markets.
Agrodity solution: See what buyers in California, North Dakota, Texas, and Illinois are paying right now. Sell to the highest bidder, not just the closest one.
3. Volatility Creates Opportunity (If You’re Ready)
Tight soybean supplies and neutral corn balances mean headline-driven price swings. A surprise Chinese purchase announcement or a South American weather scare can move beans $0.40 in a day.
Agrodity solution: Set price alerts. When your target hits, execute instantly. Don’t wait for your elevator to “check and call you back.”
What Should You Do Right Now?
Based on the November WASDE and current market conditions, here’s our actionable guidance:
Corn Sellers
Target zone: $4.60–$4.75 for old crop (March/May contracts)
Action: Sell 10–20% of inventory on rallies into this range
Watch: Export pace and South American planting progress
Soybean Sellers
Target zone: $10.75–$11.25 for old crop; $11.00–$11.50 for new crop
Action: Sell 10–15% on rallies; hold remainder for potential China demand surge
Watch: South American weather and US-China trade deal implementation
Wheat Sellers
Target zone: $5.60–$6.00 for winter wheat
Action: Sell rallies aggressively; don’t expect sustained strength
Watch: Global export competition and Black Sea supply
The Agrodity Difference: Trade Grain, Not Guesswork
The WASDE report gives you the fundamentals. Agrodity gives you the execution edge.
✅ Real-time pricing across all 50 states—see what buyers are paying right now ✅ Instant execution—lock in prices before they change ✅ Transparent fees—$0.01/bushel, no hidden costs ✅ Built-in protections—bank-level escrow, third-party inspection, full insurance ✅ No broker dependency—you control your sales, not a middleman
Stop leaving money on the table. In a range-bound market, the difference between selling at $4.70 and $4.50 corn is $10,000 per 50,000 bushels. The difference between $11.00 and $10.75 soybeans is $25,000 per 100,000 bushels.
Those aren’t hypothetical numbers. They’re real opportunities that disappear while you’re waiting for a callback.
Ready to Trade Smarter?
Book a free demo and see how Agrodity’s platform gives you the transparency and speed you need to maximize profits in today’s market.
👉 Book Your Demo Now | Learn More About Agrodity / Contact: info@agrodity.com | www.agrodity.com
About Agrodity
Agrodity is the leading electronic commodities trading platform for spot, physical cash contracts in wheat, corn, and soybeans. With 1,000+ verified members, $50M+ in processed transactions, and partnerships with major agricultural organizations, we’re building the future of transparent, efficient grain trading.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Commodity prices are subject to volatility and risk. Consult with a qualified advisor before making trading decisions.